The Texas I know is young, withnearly halfof the state being younger than 35. Turning Red: Directed by Domee Shi. Pritzkers count greatly exceeded the four counties Democrat Pat Quinn won in his 2010 election and the lone county that lined up with him in his unsuccessful 2014 reelection. Republicans continued their 28-year dominance of statewide races but fell short of their hopes for a South Texas congressional sweep. The great convergence of the mid-20th century may have been an anomaly. Republicans and Independents stayed home. The responses varied by party, with greater percentages of Republicans than Democrats in both red and blue states expressing this view. Until Republicans figure out how to win again in Chicagos suburbs, the party and voters who support it in nearly 85% of the states counties run the risk of history repeating itself in 2022. Meanwhile, many Republicans described concerns about politics and policy, while very few Democrats did. A state with a higher urban population is going to be bluer than a state with a rural population. He used a slightly different definition of red and blue states (based on both presidential voting and which party controls state government) whose main impact was to remove seven states. There has never been a more urgent moment, however, for Democrats to organize and fight for transformative change in the Lone Star State. Florida isn't bright red but a long-standing swing state. population, states, documentary, blue, red. But in truth, we have never been one nation. On the ground, John Spencer sees everything exactly as Poshard lays out. In a private newsletter that he writes for a small group of activists, Podhorzer recently laid out a detailed case for thinking of the two blocs as fundamentally different nations uneasily sharing the same geographic space. No, not a one-time blue but normally light red like North Carolina. My dad would often come home from work shortly before my mom headed out for her late-night shift as a nurse. If a red wave arrives in November, as many expect, it will likely wash ashore in landlocked Nevada, a state whose recent history of Democratic victories masks just how hard-fought those. Each of these 10 states is projected to shed one seat:. The more ground the Democrat Party gains in the suburban areas, the more theyre able to cut loose people from the rural areas, said former Democratic U.S. Rep. Glenn Poshard, the partys 1998 nominee for governor. Moreover, the stakes are too high to lose faith. Republicans havent led the state of Oregon since 1982. People do, and that accounts for why Democrats keep winning governors races in Illinois during the past quarter century despite not having a message that resonates throughout all 102 counties. The winning formula Pritzker used in 2018 relied primarily on mining votes from heavily populated Chicago and its surrounding suburbs, keeping Illinois power Democratic. Mediocre turnout on Tuesday may be one of the biggest reasons that Democrats didnt see a stronger advantage come from Texas recent population explosion, said Renee Cross, senior director of the Hobby School of Public Affairs at the University of Houston. Double your gift when you give by 6 p.m. Thursday. People have many reasons for migrating from one state to another, including educational or job opportunities, comparative cost of living, or family connections. These results are part of a larger survey project conducted by the CMC-Rose Institute Poll during the 2022 election cycle. With these three states shifted into those categories, the two nations are almost equal in eligible voting-age population, and the blue advantage in GDP roughly doubles, with the blue section contributing 48 percent and the red just 35 percent. All Rights Reserved. By that yardstick, there are 25 red states, 17 blue states, and eight purple states, where state-government control has typically been divided. That's not a new trend this year. Spencer lives next door to Baileys legislative office in Louisville, the county seat, and looks out at the county courthouse where Bailey originally litigated against Pritzker, challenging the governors authority to issue and then extend his stay-at-home orders early in the pandemic. (626) 376-1105, Kenneth P. Miller, J.D., Ph.D. Only 19%of Texas voters believe there is frequent voter fraud, yet lawmakers cemented Texas status as thehardestplace to vote in the country by restricting early voting options and empowering partisan poll watchers. Florida saw the biggest influx of new residents, some . In 2018, during his one and only run for the Illinois House, Bailey won with 76% of the vote. This survey differs from others by including in the field Governor Hochul of New York and Governor Abbott of Texasas well as Californias Governor Newsom, whom most early polls have excluded. This red-and-blue states scenario became a thing of conscience with George W. Bush, in 2000, who failed to win back states his father, and their GOP predecessors, had carried routinely. When Pritzker won the governorship, he reversed the volume of county losses by Democrats. And it was another rebuke of Democratic gubernatorial nominee Beto ORourke, who lost his third election in four years. Experts Warn GOP War on Abortion Will Turn Red and Blue States Into 'Mutually Hostile Legal Territories' "The demise of Roe will exacerbate America's antagonisms, creating more furious legal rifts between states than we've seen in modern times." Kenny Stancil May 06, 2022 Follow him@davemckinney. Still, the failure of the Democrats to break a 28-year losing streak for statewide office shows the party has a long way to go. pandemic While Texas Democrats still face daunting historical odds having not carried the state in a presidential electionsince 1976 or won statewide since 1994 parallels can be drawn to Arizona, another border state where Republicans hold has eroded. History, in my view, offers two models. Three dozen of those days were devoted to appearances in Chicago, while 22 were downstate with three in the collar counties and five in suburban Cook. The trend of population shifts from Democratically dominated blue states to Republican-controlled red states only accelerated in the COVID-era of the past 2 years, according to census data and other information from companies like U-Haul. This is not a metaphor; it is a geographic and historical reality., To Podhorzer, the growing divisions between red and blue states represent a reversion to the lines of separation through much of the nations history. Democrats, who have been advocating for expanding voter access and reproductive health, have made significant gains in Texas. Fewer residents of these states want to leave at all, and very few want to move for economic reasons. Like other analysts who study democracy, he views the Trump faction that now dominates the Republican Partywhat he terms the MAGA movementas the U.S. equivalent to the authoritarian parties in places such as Hungary and Venezuela. The state was fewer than5 percentage pointsaway from picking Bernie Sanders as its 2020 Democratic presidential nominee. The structural attacks on our institutions that paved the way for Trumps candidacy will continue to progress, Podhorzer argues, with or without him at the helm.. To the extent that planning to move may require at least three of those steps, not very many respondents are close to moving. . As the Nov. 3 election approaches, debate over which way Texas will lean has led voters to question if Texas is becoming a "purple" state.Having been strictly Republican (red) since 1976 in the presidential elections, Texas now has an increasing number of Democratic (blue) voters in the prediction polls. Democrat Joe Biden lost it by less than 3.5 . andrew.sinclair@claremontmckenna.edu In 2020, Democrats improved their margin by 3.3percentage points from 2016. On the presidential preference question including both Biden and Trump, we asked all respondents to choose from a field that included both Republican and Democratic potential candidates. Assisted by student research assistants at the Rose Institute of State and Local Government, we divided responses into three categories: economic reasons, political and policy reasons, and personal reasons. Georgia, once a strongly Republican state, has turned blue. The majority of people in these states have been voting for the Democratic Party for quite a few years now. Sign up for The Brief, our daily newsletter that keeps readers up to speed on the most essential Texas news. This survey, implemented online by YouGov between October 11 and 26, 2022, included 5,060 respondents. All of the blue states have expanded access to Medicaid under the Affordable Care Act, while about 60 percent of the total red-nation population lives in states that have refused to do so. Is Drazan right for the job and will voters show up to support her in November? (Key moments in that revolution included the passage of the Civil Rights and Voting Rights Acts and the Supreme Court decisions striking down state bans on contraception, interracial marriage, abortion, and, much later, prohibitions against same-sex intimate relations and marriage.). In terms of sheer volume, the Sunshine State was followed by Texas, the Carolinas, Tennessee, Georgia, Arizona, and Idaho. Florida saw the biggest influx of new residents, some 319,000 people, a total population increase of nearly 2%, according to an These changes were catalyzed by a diversifying electorate similar to Texas and aggressive investment in organizing to reach young voters and voters of color. Through gerrymandering, theyreducedthe number of majority-Black and Latino congressional districts andsplit upAsian communities significantly diluting political power for the Texans of color who have driven population growth. . The new data for 2022 follows a similar path as 2020 and 2021s migration patterns. Our initial question was framed as interest in leaving, without necessarily having it be a real option. Abbott did a really good job of tying ORourke with Biden and the border crisis and them being on the same page, and voters bought it.. The NAR noted in its report that many of the areas that saw the most people relocating featured economies where the labor market had bounded back since the early days of the coronavirus pandemic, which featured state and local governments across the United States shutting down or restricting business operations in an effort to quell the virus. Florida just does whatever it wants though and is impossible to predict, especially this far out. That can't be good," Chishti said. (April 26), Get a digest of our takes on current events every day, Democrats still face daunting historical odds, voted Democratic only once in a presidential election since 1948, not occupied both U.S. Senate seats since 1952, Your California Privacy Rights/Privacy Policy. He won in remote downstate counties like Alexander, in more populated places like Peoria and Rock Island counties and in university-dominated counties like Champaign, Knox and DeKalb. The GOP won the governorship. They just didnt vote, period.. Poshard said gun rights arguments and anti-abortion sentiment are issues that drown out most everything else in the region, including workplace-related gains that Democratic-favoring unions have long championed. The MAGA movement is not stopping at the borders of the states it already controls, Podhorzer writes. I wont get that for nothing. As a result, Texas might seem like a lost cause to Democrats across the nation. AT&T DirecTV Censorship of Newsmax Continues, See More Here, Report: Texas, Arizona, Florida Posted Biggest Population Gains in 2021, Red States Grow as Blue States Shrink: Census, Air Force Fires Nuclear Base Leaders After Failed Inspection, Consumer Product Safety Commission Wants Information on Gas Stove Hazards. Simultaneously, the regional differences were moderated by waves of national investment, including the New Deal spending on rural electrification, the Tennessee Valley Authority, agricultural price supports, and Social Security during the 1930s, and the Great Society programs that provided federal aid for K12 schools and higher education, as well as Medicare and Medicaid. OREGON POLL: @ChristineDrazan 36%@TinaKotek 34%@senbetsyjohnson 19%9% undecidedhttps://t.co/Q4dZtymPg7 pic.twitter.com/NB2cIsLUfm, Emerson College Polling (@EmersonPolling) October 4, 2022. "Florida is a competitive battleground state in 2022," Executive Director Noam Lee said in a statement . The people in power, however, would rather not have you know that. In California, for all its dissatisfied people, only 2% had taken all four actions. Indiana shares this trend with. "I have no doubt whatsoever that we are not a blue state," Volgy said. More than half of Republicans (58%) and Democrats (55%) said they thought about moving to a state where the government better reflects their political and policy values, while 69% of Democrats and 65% of Republicans considered moving . An emergency declaration is a powerful tool we need to help homeless Oregonians. PublishedJanuary 10, 2022 at 5:35 AM CST, St. Louis Public Radio | Its a really stacked deck in these states because of this democratic backsliding, Grumbach said. But so many of today's states have a partisan voting index . On its own, the blue nation would be the worlds second-largest economy, trailing only China. Midterm dynamics suggest that 2022 is likelier to see Republicans making inroads into blue states than Democrats making inroads into red ones, but, since gubernatorial elections can sometimes . Donald Trump won the 2016 presidential election by taking 100 electoral votes from this 'blue wall' and flipping them. Holding incumbents accountable is complicated, though, in a system where policy authority is divided across multiple layers and branches of government, and partisanship seems to be more important than actually evaluating a governors performance. Poshard believes a combination of factors is making Democrats less appealing in areas outside Chicago and the suburbs. (Newsom has also engaged in verbal battles with Texas governor Greg Abbott, another potential presidential candidate. Democrats went from winning 43 counties in the 1998 governors race down to a dismal one county in the 2014 race, in which Democratic incumbent Gov. STATE OF THE ECONOMYTAKING HITS AND RUNNING UP DEFICITS. The picture is a bit clearer for the Republicans. Rural Texas still rules the day. Importantly, the majority of Texans oppose recent conservative priorities. The GOP's defending 20 of the 34 seats up for grabs in 2022. Virginia remains a blue state because, all things being equal, in statewide federal races, the Democratic nominee starts off with a clear advantage. I was born in Houston to immigrants from Hong Kong and Mexico. Moreover, the elections may give momentum to at least two of these governorsNewsom and DeSantisto sell their states competing visions to the nation by running for president in 2024. That progress, though, stopped after 1980, and the gap remained roughly unchanged for the next three decades. Pritzkers campaign has made clear it doesnt aim to cede any of that turf next November to whatever Republican prevails in the June 28, 2022 primary, and that it hopes to build on 2018s results. [4] In that match-up, Harris leads Newsom 56-44%. Republicans also seemed poised to add slightly to their majorities in the Texas Legislature, where theyve controlled both chambers for 20 years, and held large leads in all statewide judicial races. And it is determined to impose its policy and social vision on the entire countrywith or without majority support. Nearly one-fourth of Democratic voters (24% in California and 23% in New York) described themselves as worse off or much worse off now than they were two years ago, yet about 9 of 10 Democrats in those states will vote for Governors Newsom and Hochul. At this early stage, all such choices are speculative. (ConservativeJournal.org) The midterms are just around the corner. Even if Republicans arent seeing their map expanding into new territory like South Texas, they can still clearly count on rural voters to hold the line against waves of new and potentially liberal voters moving into Texas major cities, said Landry, the West Texas college professor. For example, if a state has a FiveThirtyEight partisan lean of R+5, that means it is 5 percentage points more Republican-leaning than the nation as a whole. Whats becoming clearer over time is that the Trump-era GOP is hoping to use its electoral dominance of the red states, the small-state bias in the Electoral College and the Senate, and the GOP-appointed majority on the Supreme Court to impose its economic and social model on the entire nationwith or without majority public support. Rose Professor of State and Local Government Reason to act now, else risklosing generations of progress made in enfranchising Black and brown communities. Phone: (909) 621-8159, Rose Award for Excellence in Public Service, Battleground Pennsylvania: The 2022 Midterm Election, Red vs. Blue States: Competing Visions for 2022 and 2024, Webinars: 2020 Census and the New Redistricting Cycle, Rose Institute Q&A: CAs Top-Two Election System, COVID-19, the CARES Act and State and Local Government, Archive of Kosmont-Rose Institute Cost of Doing Business Survey. kmiller@cmc.edu, Kravis Center, Fourth Floor The Democratic states, comprising 242 electoral votes had all actually gone blue since 1992 - six straight elections. In November 2020, when he ran for the Illinois Senate, he built on that margin, winning 77% of the vote. This election thus provides voters in the four states an opportunity to judge not only their governors, but also the blue or red agendas they represent. As a follow-up, we asked Democrats to choose head-to-head between Harris and Newsom. Financial supporters play no role in the Tribune's journalism. No state in the blue section has a law on the books banning abortion before fetal viability, while almost all of the red states are poised to restrict abortion rights if the Republican-appointed Supreme Court majority, as expected, overturns Roe v. Wade. In this match-up, DeSantis barely edges out Newsom, 51-49%. As the distance widens between the two sections, she said, there are all kinds of potential for really deep disruptions, social disruptions, that arent just about our feelings and our opinions., To Podhorzer, the growing separation means that after the period of fading distinctions, bedrock differences dating back to the countrys founding are resurfacing. Mostly, it comes down to cities. 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"The migrants are being used as pawns in a politically charged election, intentionally sowing chaos so the governors can say, 'You're getting a taste of your own medicine.'. Claremont McKenna College As with financial loss, however, concerns about quality of life are not causing members of the majority party to turn against their governors in either red or blue states. Nobody ever talks about that. For all the stresses of the last four years, the vast majority of voters in each state who identify with the incumbents party are going to remain loyal to the incumbent. Specifically, Republicans are more likely to want to leave California and New York and more Democrats are more likely to want to leave Texas and Florida. Before 2020, Arizona had voted Democratic only once in a presidential election since 1948 and Democrats had not occupied both U.S. Senate seats since 1952. We have never been one nation continued their 28-year dominance of statewide but! 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